Our take on the U.S. tariff pause
The consideration of some financial risks and costs of tariffs has put a check on the U.S. approach. We extend our tactical horizon to dial up risk-taking.
Global markets endured extraordinary volatility last week. A spike in long-term U.S. Treasury yields was one factor seeming to drive a change in tactics.
We expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates this week. U.S. tariffs will likely lower growth in Europe, but greater fiscal spending may limit the drag.
The 90-day pause of tariffs on most countries and exemption of key tech imports suggest the U.S. administration is taking some account of financial risks and costs as well as a country’s willingness to engage. It shows there are factors that could put a check on the administration’s maximal tariff stance. As a result, late last week we extended our tactical horizon back to six to 12 months to dial up risk. Yet we still think tariffs can hurt growth and lift inflation, and major uncertainty remains.
The U.S. has paused country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs on all nations, except China, for 90 days and exempted some key tech imports. These tariffs are intended to create negotiating leverage on countries with which the U.S. runs goods trade deficits – and reduce imbalances. See the chart. Even with the pause, the U.S. average effective tariff rate is still around 20%, including 145% tariffs on select Chinese imports. We see U.S. tariffs adding to inflation. Prolonged uncertainty raises the risk of recession. It may drag on corporate investment and delay longerterm commitments. Consumer spending could be hurt by any erosion of wealth and real incomes. Dented confidence in the U.S. could curb foreign investor appetite for U.S. assets. Trade tensions with China are set to deepen. We see tariffs lowering growth in China, and potential policy stimulus only partly offsetting that drag.
Along with country-specific tariffs, we see two other primary types of U.S. tariffs. First, tariffs on strategic sectors to support reshoring of activity. Second, a universal 10% tariff on most imports to generate revenue and aid domestic production. Even with last week’s pause – and subsequent exemption of some key tech imports such as smartphones – the U.S. is still facing much higher tariffs than we expected a few weeks ago. With uncertainty around where tariffs will land and unpredictable negotiations ahead, we aim to understand the factors that can prompt the administration to change course on policy. It appears to be taking some account of market volatility, financial risks and other sources of pushback, as well as a country’s willingness to engage. That is putting a check on its maximal stance and could bind policy changes.
The implications? The near-term risk of a financial accident has eased. We cautiously leaned back into risk late last week by extending our tactical horizon back to six to 12 months from three months. We also renewed our overweight to U.S. and Japanese stocks. U.S. equities are supported by the AI theme, resilient corporate earnings and a so far solid economy. We see Japanese stocks still benefiting from stronger corporate profits and shareholder-friendly reforms. We recently upped Europe’s stocks to neutral but focus on selective opportunities while looking for more progress on structural challenges.
Yet we expect ongoing risk asset volatility and potentially sharp reversals. Spiking yields in long-term U.S. Treasuries seemed to be a factor in the change in tariff tactics. We stay underweight long-term Treasuries, our highest conviction view: tariffs are likely to add to already sticky inflation, and congressional budget plans last week reinforce the outlook for persistent budget deficits. We favor gold instead as a portfolio diversifier. The broad-based equity selloff has created opportunities to tap into certain sectors, and selectivity is key. We still like U.S. technology benefitting from the AI buildout and adoption. We also favor global banks. That includes U.S. banks given the scope for deregulation even with some potential economic pain. We also like banks in Europe (higher rates versus pre-pandemic levels) and Japan (stronger loan growth).
Bottom line: The U.S. paused most “reciprocal” tariffs even as U.S.-China trade tensions look set to deepen. Checks on policy allowed us to extend our tactical horizon back to six to 12 months and resume our positive view on U.S. and Japanese stocks.
Market backdrop
Markets have endured extraordinary volatility due to uncertainty over U.S. tariffs. The S&P 500 rebounded nearly 6% last week, with one of its largest daily jumps in its history after the pause on “reciprocal” tariffs. But the index remains 13% below its February record high. The U.S. dollar tumbled to three-year lows against major currencies even as both 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields spiked about 50 basis points to 4.50% and 4.90% – on track for their largest weekly rise in four decades.
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